I understand the thought that handhelds…
Posted: December 7th, 2007, by Michael Jensen… will be the Next Big Thing, which principle underlies Nick Carr‘s post, but I’m not fully convinced.
While handhelds may be the Next Big Thing, they’ll be a transitory Big Thing, I suspect.
I tend to think of handheld devices — whether iPhone, BlackBerry, or Kindles — as intermediary devices, things which suffice for now, but are not sufficient for immersive pleasure.
We’ll have a few years where handheld devices rule — 2008, 2009 — but by 2011, we’ll have many new modes for Immersion, and the handhelds (or lapel-helds, by that point) will be secondary, only-in-an-elevator tools.
The brute limits of small-screen and one-hand interfaces will likely impede Web2.0-rule-following handhelds from attaining dominance in the interconnection experience. But when we have advertising-supported public ViewKiosks, not unlike phone booths, where it’ll read your VerizonID from your lapel, and bring up your email, your most recent Web sessions, and enable virtual conferencing — well, then things change again. Dentists’ offices could provide these terminals easily enough.
Immersion is what we seek, whether immersion in human interaction, or immersion in a good novel. What many audiences are willing to pay for is immersion, because it’s something humans crave, like the epiphanic moment, like religious transportation, like a rousing game of paintball, or like fine Scotch or other mind-alterations. Immersion is nearly impossible on a handheld device. It’ll require an HD screen, or wall, or glasses.
It’ll require visual-field width and height, and I think, to provide immersion, and unless the handhelds become virtual-space projectors, then the era of handheld dominance, for reading or connecting, is pretty short. So while it’s not “computer-centric” quite, it’ll functionally operate that way. The Web 2.0 stuff will remain important because they’ll figure out how to work with multiple form factors, but regardless, we’ll move away from a pocket-sized reading/viewing gizmo, as a primary tool, as fast as we can, as we figure out how.
December 8th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
I have to agree that this “Age of Handhelds” that we are now is only temporary until the technology improves the point where every computer will instantaneously make itself “personal” after checking for the correct credentials.
As things stand now, when my wife and I travel to my in-laws for the holidays I always bring my palm pilot, laptop and the related accessories. My wife brings her iPod Shuffle. My palm contains a copy of my schedule, contacts, music I like to listen to, ebooks, and a few games I can play if I get bored. I’m pretty sure that I would be lost without my palm.
This is a huge contrast to the future 10-20 years from now when we might be able to log onto my in-law’s computer and log into a virtual desktop of our own.
I wonder, however, if portable devices will still be desireable in a ubiquitous world. I’m thinking specifically of the Kindle ebook reader which has an always-on connection to the Internet. This is great when you are in the city or other heavily populated areas with cell phone reception, but not very handy if you find yourself in a more rural area or come upon a dead zone. Already there has been reports from owners of Kindles of times when they lose their connection to the Internet. They aren’t too bothered by this because they were able to access the books and other information that had been stored on the device itself.
My thinking is that a person in the future would still want to carry an abridged collection of their songs, ebooks, and other files, for those times when they lose signal.
This concept is similar to the carry-on bags that everyone brings with them when they travel via plane. They’ve packed their toiletries and a spare change of clothing in that carry-on just in case their luggage is misrouted. And Murphy’s Law tells us that anything that can go wrong will.
Even in the future Murphy’s Law will influence our desire to be able to carry our most prized files in our pockets.
December 8th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Even if the handheld is only the next big thing for a while, it’s still an important big thing. A bigger thing, perhaps, than ten years ago when Palm was going to take over the world (remember)?
I agree that we’d like an immersive environment for viewing and that the physical combination of a tiny screen with a computer is not an ideal means of delivering this. But I suggest that the ideal means is something like a pocket PC (or watch PC or cellphone PC) with a wireless connection to a pair of sunglasses that include a heads-up-display.
I don’t want to share someone else’s immersion at the dentist’s office. I don’t want to wait in line at the pay phone (have you seen any pay phones lately??). I certainly don’t want to log onto my son-in-law’s computer to pull up my web-based profile. I want my computer with me always. Maybe ultimately as an implant. So I can talk, research, play, and yes, read a book, whenever I have the time and the mood strikes me.
Rob Preece
Publisher, http://www.BooksForABuck.com